You do not need to be a mathematician to play good poker, but a handful of numbers will make you a noticeably better player. This guide gives you the key Texas Hold'em odds in plain tables, then shows how to use them at the table.
Every figure here has been calculated exactly from a standard 52-card deck.
Percentages and "odds against"
Poker players quote chances in two ways. A percentage is how often something happens. Odds against compare the times it does not happen with the times it does. A 20% chance happens 1 time in 5, so the odds against it are 4 to 1.
Chances of being dealt each starting hand
There are 1,326 possible two-card starting hands in Texas Hold'em.
| Starting hand | Combinations | Chance | Odds against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pair of aces | 6 | 0.45% | 220 to 1 |
| Any pair from kings down to jacks | 18 | 1.36% | 72.7 to 1 |
| Any pair from tens down to sixes | 30 | 2.26% | 43.2 to 1 |
| Any pair from fives down to twos | 24 | 1.81% | 54.3 to 1 |
| Ace-king suited | 4 | 0.30% | 330.5 to 1 |
| Ace-king offsuit | 12 | 0.90% | 109.5 to 1 |
| Ace-queen or ace-jack suited | 8 | 0.60% | 164.8 to 1 |
| Ace-queen or ace-jack offsuit | 24 | 1.81% | 54.3 to 1 |
| King-queen suited | 4 | 0.30% | 330.5 to 1 |
| King-queen offsuit | 12 | 0.90% | 109.5 to 1 |
| Ace with 2 to 10, suited | 36 | 2.71% | 35.8 to 1 |
| Ace with 2 to 10, offsuit | 108 | 8.14% | 11.3 to 1 |
| Suited connectors, 5-4 to J-10 | 28 | 2.11% | 46.4 to 1 |
| Offsuit connectors, 5-4 to J-10 | 84 | 6.33% | 14.8 to 1 |
| Any pair | 78 | 5.88% | 16.0 to 1 |
| Any two suited cards | 312 | 23.53% | 3.25 to 1 |
| Any pair or any hand with an ace | 270 | 20.36% | 3.91 to 1 |
Knowing how often a hand comes up is only half the story; the other half is whether to play it. The Poker Whizz Wheel ranks all 169 starting hands and gives a play-or-fold recommendation for early, middle and late position.
"Suited" means both cards are the same suit; "offsuit" means they are different suits. "Connectors" are two cards next to each other in rank. The 5-4 to J-10 range is used because these are the connectors that can make the greatest number of different straights.
How often each final hand is made in Hold'em
In Hold'em you choose the best five of seven cards (two in your hand and five on the board), so strong hands are much more common than in five-card poker. If you stay to the river, your best hand will be:
| Final hand | Chance | Odds against |
|---|---|---|
| Royal flush | 0.0032% | 30,939 to 1 |
| Straight flush | 0.028% | 3,590 to 1 |
| Four of a kind | 0.17% | 594 to 1 |
| Full house | 2.60% | 37.5 to 1 |
| Flush | 3.03% | 32.1 to 1 |
| Straight | 4.62% | 20.6 to 1 |
| Three of a kind | 4.83% | 19.7 to 1 |
| Two pair | 23.50% | 3.26 to 1 |
| One pair | 43.82% | 1.28 to 1 |
| High card only | 17.41% | 4.74 to 1 |
The equivalent figures for a five-card deal are in our poker hand rankings guide.
Three flop numbers worth remembering
- Pocket pair: you will flop three of a kind or better about 11.8% of the time, roughly 1 in 8.5.
- Two suited cards: you will flop a flush draw (two more of your suit) about 10.9% of the time, and a made flush only 0.84% of the time.
- Any two cards: most of the time the flop will not help you. Be ready to let a hand go.
Counting outs: the rule of 2 and 4
An out is any unseen card that would turn your hand into a likely winner. With four hearts after the flop, there are nine hearts left, so you have 9 outs to a flush.
To estimate your chance of hitting:
- After the flop, with two cards to come: multiply your outs by 4.
- After the turn, with one card to come: multiply your outs by 2.
For 9 outs, that gives about 36% after the flop (the exact figure is 35.0%) and about 18% after the turn (exactly 19.6%). The ×4 shortcut overstates your chances when you have a lot of outs (15 outs gives 60% against an exact 54.1%), while the ×2 shortcut slightly understates them.
| Outs | Typical draw | Turn or river (2 cards) | River only (1 card) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Pocket pair to three of a kind | 8.4% | 4.3% |
| 4 | Inside straight draw ("gutshot") | 16.5% | 8.7% |
| 6 | Two overcards to pair one | 24.1% | 13.0% |
| 8 | Open-ended straight draw | 31.5% | 17.4% |
| 9 | Flush draw | 35.0% | 19.6% |
| 12 | Flush draw plus gutshot | 45.0% | 26.1% |
| 15 | Flush draw plus open-ended straight draw | 54.1% | 32.6% |
Using pot odds
Pot odds compare the size of the pot with the cost of calling. If the pot holds 80 and you must call 20, you are risking 20 to win the 80 already in the pot (4 to 1), so you need to win at least 20% of the time (20 ÷ 100, the size of the final pot) for the call to pay off over the long run.
Compare that with your chance of hitting. With a flush draw on the turn you will hit about 19.6% of the time, which is just short of the 20% you need, so the call is marginal. If the pot were larger, it would be a clear call.
Squirrel tip: A simple habit: before calling a bet with a draw, count your outs, double them, and ask whether the pot is paying you enough.
Want to take the maths to the table? The Poker Whizz Wheel puts the pre-flop side of this on a pocket-sized wheel, and our Poker Strategy range has more tools to help.
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Related guides: Poker hand rankings | How to play Texas Hold'em | Poker chip values and colours